Chile now absorbs 55% of Brazil's carbon black exports

Brazil's carbon black production capacity is concentrated in petrochemical plants, primarily at the Camaçari hub in Bahia and complexes in Rio de Janeiro, linked to the processing of heavy aromatic oils.

31× in twelve months

A 31-fold FOB increase — from US$ 244,000 to US$ 7.9 million — cannot be explained by price fluctuation or exchange rates. Carbon black trades in industrial commodity markets with typical annual price variation of 5% to 20%. To generate a 3,000% jump, volume must increase by a comparable order of magnitude.

Chile has an industrial profile consistent with this type of demand: it has a consolidated tire and rubber industry — primarily to supply mining fleets that operate some of the world's largest off-road trucks in the copper mines of the north (Chuquicamata, Escondida, Collahuasi). Tires for heavy mining equipment consume significant volumes of high-specification carbon black.

What changed in the corridor structure

Chile's rise to the top of the ranking corresponds to a contraction of other destinations — from a combined 99.2% in 2024 to 44.9% in 2025. That displacement has two possible readings:

The first is that Brazil expanded its carbon black export capacity in 2025 — increased production, reduced domestic demand, or higher idle capacity — and Chile absorbed the incremental volume. The second is that Chile replaced previous suppliers (typically Asian or North American) with the Brazilian source, without necessarily any volume growth on the destination side.

YTD 2026 (January–April) confirming Chile's lead suggests this is not a spot transaction or seasonal arbitrage.

Moderate concentration — not critical

At 55.1% share, Chile represents meaningful concentration, but not at the risk scale seen in the Danish flexible metal tube case. There is at least 44.9% of volume distributed across other destinations — providing a minimum diversification base.

The relevant monitoring question here is whether Chilean growth coincides with or competes against Brazil's domestic carbon black demand — a critical input for the national tire sector, which supplies both automakers and the replacement market. If the domestic industry is in an expansion cycle, availability for export could contract quickly.

Outlook

Growing Chilean demand for carbon black can be read alongside the expansion of the country's mining sector — copper prices held at elevated levels through 2024–2025, incentivizing capacity investment in major mines. More ore production means more heavy equipment, more tires, more carbon black.

If that demand driver holds, the Brazil→Chile corridor in SH4 2803 has structural support. If it is episodic — tied to precautionary stocking or a single contract — full-year 2026 data will reveal the trend.

Source: MDIC ComexStat. Full-year 2025 data, SH4 2803, export flow. Compared to same period 2024.

Brazil's production context

Brazil's carbon black output is linked to the availability of feedstock from domestic refineries and petrochemical complexes. When refinery utilization rates are high and domestic tire industry demand is below capacity, export windows open. The 2025 export surge to Chile likely coincided with one of these windows — whether driven by PETROBRAS refinery operations, seasonal demand dips in the Brazilian auto sector, or planned capacity additions at a carbon black plant. Tracking this alongside domestic tire production data would clarify whether the export flow is structurally sustainable or cyclical.